Vulnerability Intelligence CVSS 9.8 (v3.1) EPSS 25.3% (98th %) High (Multi-Source Verified)

CVE-2026-47291

CVE-2026-47291 is a CRITICAL risk security flaw. With a CVSS score of 9.8, it presents potential exposure requiring defensive validation.

Tech Lead Manager (TLM) Strategic Briefing

Engineering Leadership Context

HIGH OPERATIONAL RISK: CVE-2026-47291 carries a Critical CVSS base score of 9.8. While in-the-wild exploitation may not yet be confirmed in KEV, the architectural impact allows unauthenticated execution or total privilege compromise. Teams should schedule expedited remediation in the current sprint cycle. Statistical Exploit Likelihood (EPSS): Ranked in the 97.9th percentile globally (30-day weaponization probability: 25.3%).

Key Strategic Takeaways
  • CISA KEV Catalog: No active in-the-wild exploitation entry.
  • CVSS Base Severity: 9.8 (v3.1) โ€” Vector: CVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
  • EPSS Threat Probability: 25.30% (97.9th percentile globally)
  • CWE Root Cause: CWE-122; CWE-190: Integer Overflow or Wraparound
Prioritization & Remediation Guidance
  • Emergency Remediation: Apply vendor security updates immediately across all public-facing and internal assets.
  • Telemetry & Threat Sweep: Execute detection queries (KQL/SPL/Sigma) across EDR and firewall logs for exploitation artifacts.
  • Perimeter Isolation: If patching cannot occur immediately, isolate affected services or apply WAF virtual patching rules.

Deep Technical & Root-Cause Analysis

Security Engineering

Vulnerability Analysis for CVE-2026-47291: Public-source record for CVE-2026-47291 in CVE-2026-47291: Remote Code Execution in the Windows HTTP.sys. Root-Cause Flaw Classification: Identified under CWE-122, CWE-190: Integer Overflow or Wraparound. This flaw typically manifests when software fails to properly constrain inputs, validate boundaries, or manage memory lifetimes. CVSS Metric Vector: CVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H.

CVSS Metric Breakdown Vector CVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H

Exploitation Mechanics & Attack Progression

4-Phase Exploit Sequence
1

Phase 1 - Attack Surface Discovery & Preconditions: Attacker scans public or internal ingress telemetry to identify reachable instances of the vulnerable service. They enumerate software banners, endpoints, or unauthenticated RPC/HTTP headers to confirm exposure.

2

Phase 2 - Path Traversal Sequence: Attacker supplies encoded directory traversal tokens (e.g. '../', '..%2f', '%252e%252e%252f') into URI or parameter fields to break out of intended boundaries.

3

Phase 3 - Arbitrary File Read / Execution: The application accesses unauthorized system or configuration files, disclosing credentials or loading untrusted libraries.

4

Phase 4 - Post-Exploitation Movement & Shell Access: The payload spawns an interactive command shell (e.g. bash, sh, powershell.exe, cmd.exe), establishes reverse C2 communication, writes persistent webshells to disk, and executes discovery commands to pivot laterally.

Dedicated Threat Hunt & Movement Detections

Tactical SOC & Threat Hunter Playbook

๐Ÿ” Hypothesis & Telemetry Hunt Procedure

โ€บ 1. Telemetry Verification (EDR Process Lineage): Query endpoint detection telemetry for web application daemons (e.g. w3wp.exe, nginx, httpd, java, node) spawning shell binaries (cmd.exe, powershell.exe, sh, bash) or utility downloaders (certutil, curl, wget).
โ€บ 2. Network Ingress / Egress Inspection: Review reverse proxy, WAF, and firewall logs for anomalous POST/GET requests targeting affected service, followed immediately by unauthorized outbound TCP/UDP connections to external IPs.
โ€บ 3. Disk & Webroot Forensics: Scan temporary directories (/tmp/, /var/tmp/, C:\Windows\Temp\) and application webroots for newly dropped webshells, compiled DLLs, or executable scripts created around the timestamp of suspicious requests.
โ€บ 4. Session & Identity Auditing: Check authentication and IAM audit logs for newly spawned administrator accounts, service token issuance, or sudden privilege escalation originating from the service host.

โš ๏ธ Lateral Movement & Post-Exploitation Indicators

  • โ— Spawning of interactive shells (cmd.exe, powershell.exe, /bin/sh, /bin/bash) from web server or middleware processes
  • โ— Outbound network connections initiated from server processes to untrusted external IP addresses on non-standard ports
  • โ— Creation of temporary executable artifacts or scripts in %TEMP%, /tmp/, or application document roots
  • โ— Execution of system discovery commands (whoami, ipconfig, ifconfig, net user, id, uname -a) by web service accounts
  • โ— Attempted persistence via scheduled tasks (schtasks.exe), cron jobs, or registry autorun modifications

๐Ÿ›ก๏ธ Production Threat Detection Rules

Ready-to-deploy SIEM / EDR queries
Sigma Rule - CVE-2026-47291 Exploitation & Movement
title: Exploitation and Post-Exploit Movement - CVE-2026-47291
id: be6d59dc-1176-59dc-a422-77a6644d2fdc
status: experimental
description: Detects suspicious process execution, child process anomalies, and command interpreter invocation associated with CVE-2026-47291 exploitation.
logsource:
  category: process_creation
  product: windows
detection:
  selection:
    ParentImage|endswith:
      - '\\w3wp.exe'
      - '\\httpd.exe'
      - '\\nginx.exe'
      - '\\java.exe'
      - '\\node.exe'
      - '\\tomcat.exe'
    Image|endswith:
      - '\\cmd.exe'
      - '\\powershell.exe'
      - '\\pwsh.exe'
      - '\\certutil.exe'
      - '\\whoami.exe'
  condition: selection
level: high
tags:
  - attack.execution
  - attack.t1059
  - cve.cve-2026-47291
Splunk SPL - CVE-2026-47291 Process Anomalies
index=security sourcetype=XmlWinEventLog:Microsoft-Windows-Sysmon/Operational EventCode=1 (ParentImage="*w3wp.exe" OR ParentImage="*httpd.exe" OR ParentImage="*nginx.exe" OR ParentImage="*java.exe" OR ParentImage="*node.exe") (Image="*cmd.exe" OR Image="*powershell.exe" OR Image="*certutil.exe" OR Image="*whoami.exe") | eval cve="CVE-2026-47291" | table _time Computer User ParentImage Image CommandLine cve
Microsoft Sentinel KQL - CVE-2026-47291 Attack Telemetry
// Microsoft Sentinel KQL - Exploitation Detection for CVE-2026-47291
DeviceProcessEvents
| where InitiatingProcessFileName in~ ('w3wp.exe', 'httpd.exe', 'nginx.exe', 'java.exe', 'node.exe', 'tomcat.exe')
| where FileName in~ ('cmd.exe', 'powershell.exe', 'pwsh.exe', 'sh', 'bash', 'whoami.exe', 'certutil.exe')
| extend AssociatedCVE = 'CVE-2026-47291'
| project TimeGenerated, DeviceName, InitiatingProcessFileName, InitiatingProcessCommandLine, FileName, ProcessCommandLine, AccountName, AssociatedCVE

Authoritative Telemetry & Scoring

National Vulnerability Database NVD 2.0

CVSS Base Score: 9.8

Framework: NVD General

CWE Classification:
  • CWE-122
  • CWE-190: Integer Overflow or Wraparound
CISA KEV Catalog Not Listed

No active weaponization confirmed in the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog to date.

FIRST EPSS Model v3 Model

Exploit Probability: 25.30%

Global Percentile: 97.9th %

Predicts probability of weaponization in the next 30 days based on real-world threat telemetry.

Correlated Threat Reports